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Why Qualcomm, Inc. Stock Looks Like a Good Trade Here

Broadcom will likely make an $80-plus bid for QCOM stock soon

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeInLeft”]Last month, QUALCOMM, Inc. (NASDAQ:QCOM) was a $53 stock and I was largely neutral on the name. Now, QCOM stock trades at $66 and I’m bullish.

Why the sudden change? Broadcom Ltd(NASDAQ:AVGO) really, really wants to buy QCOM. And the takeover price will likely be far above $66.

Granted, there is no guarantee of an acquisition actually going through. Plus, the process will likely be lengthy, complicated and come under scrutiny from antitrust regulators.

That being said, the risk-reward profile on QCOM stock skews towards the upside at these levels. I think QCOM’s standalone value is 20% below the current stock price. Meanwhile, QCOM stock could get taken out a near 30% premium. Given Broadcom’s persistence in the deal thus far, it is also more likely than not this deal does go through.

That combination makes QCOM stock a good trade here and now.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/2″][vc_raw_html]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[/vc_raw_html][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_raw_html]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[/vc_raw_html][vc_column_text css_animation=”fadeIn”]Then, on November 6, Broadcom pulled the trigger and a made a formal offer for QCOM. The $130 billion cash-and-stock deal was the biggest buyout offer in tech. Ever. The offer put QCOM’s takeover stock price at $70, $60 of which would be cash and $10 of which would be AVGO stock.

QCOM didn’t like the deal. They felt that the $70 takeover price significantly undervalued the company. Consequently, Qualcomm’s Board of Directors unanimously rejected the offer.

This move was widely expected. Many analysts weighed in and said $70 seemed like a low price to pay in this situation.

QCOM as an $80 stock back in 2014 before legal concerns with Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) started to weigh on sentiment and operations. A deal with AVGO could make those concerns go away, since AVGO and AAPL have a closer relationship than the strained one between QCOM and AAPL. Most analysts and investors are talking about a takeover price between $80 and $90.

It looks as if AVGO will indeed make that offer. Following Qualcomm’s rejection, AVGO released a statement saying they are “fully committed” to acquiring QCOM. They also said that the acquisition stands regardless of how QCOM’s acquisition of NXP Semiconductors NV(NASDAQ:NXPI) plays out.

Overall, then, it looks fairly likely that AVGO will make an $80-plus offer for QCOM stock in the near future.

Why QCOM Stock Is a Buy Here

Takeovers are usually a wild card.

This one has a little less “wild” in it.

AVGO has already made an unsolicited offer. And they look determined to get to a price both companies will agree on. That price is likely somewhere between $80 and $90.

The “wild” here will come from antitrust concerns.

Investors need to look no further that QCOM’s most recent headline acquisition to understand the risks to a AVGO buyout. It has been more than a year since QCOM agreed to buy NXPI for $38 billion, and the deal still hasn’t closed. The European Commission has put its review of the merger on hold.

It is never a good sign in M&A to see things get dragged on like that. It lessens the likelihood of a deal closing.

Thus, I peg the chances of a QCOM takeover at $85 per share at somewhere around 70%. I also maintain that the standalone value of QCOM stock is $52, and that there is a 30% chance shares head back to that level.

That combination implies favorable risk-reward asymmetry on QCOM stock until about $75.

Bottom Line on QCOM Stock

Given Broadcom’s persistence in the deal thus far, it looks like a higher bid is in the cards. That bid will likely come in around $85.

When that bid does come in, QCOM stock will rally. That is why QCOM stock looks like a good trade here and now.[/vc_column_text][vc_raw_html]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[/vc_raw_html][/vc_column][/vc_row]